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Prediction for CME (2022-03-16T13:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-16T13:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19461/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption begins around 2022-03-16T12:35Z and is seen well in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 in the NE quadrant. Following this, brightening and an associated EUV wave is visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO AIA 193. Post eruptive arcades are then visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 at 13:24Z. Arrival Note: Gradual field amplification accompanied by flux rope and pileup. Field amplitude only exceeds 10 nT for one data point at 2022-03-20T07:00Z, and there is no clear sudden shock. Associated with Kp reaching 3 during synoptic periods 2022-03-20T00:00Z-06:00Z and slight magnetospheric compression to about 8.5 Re at 2022-03-20T03:38Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-03-19T20:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-19T11:59Z
Prediction Method: SPM2
Prediction Method Note:

Input:
Initial shock speed: 511 km/s
Source location:  N01E25
Solar wind speed: 350 km/s
Duration time: 0.5 hr

Output: The shock will reach the Earth at 2022-03-19 11:58:37

Lead Time: 42.05 hour(s)
Difference: 8.97 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2022-03-18T02:54Z

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